With unemployment now reaching 9.5% and on track to hit 10% in the next few months, recruiters should consider their career options for the near term. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so it may well be that things are getting better. There are glimmers of hope that may suggest the worst is over — The Dow and S&P 500 have been rising; global markets from Japan to London have also seen gains of about 25% in the last few months; housing sales are up along with consumer confidence.
But none of this means that a recovery is in the making. All it means is that the pace of decline is slowing. The good news is that there’s less bad news, but the bad news is that there’s still plenty of bad news.
Stimulus
The last 18 months have resulted in job losses equal to job gains of the previous 42 months. A recovery will require job creation of 200,000 or more per month. Right now there’s nothing to show this will occur anytime soon, despite any claims to the contrary.
Lately the President has talking about how many jobs are being “created or saved” by stimulus funds. That’s an interesting way to put it. The New York Times has diplomatically described these claims as being “unverifiable.” Considering what a big deal the administration has made about the need for transparency let’s be undiplomatic and call them what they are: BS. There is no way to measure if a job has been “saved,” and such talk only underscores the fact that the Administration lacks confidence in the ability of $787 billion stimulus package to do much. It was supposed to prevent unemployment from exceeding 8%. Well, so much for that. So far the money has largely gone into infrastructure projects, most of which do not result in permanent jobs.
The massive increases in public debt, in America and other countries, while necessary to stabilize economies, will result in sluggish growth for years. The IMF estimates that public debt in the world’s leading economies will rise to 100% of GDP by 2010 and to 140% by 2014. To put it in perspective: by 2014 the United States and other members of the OECD will owe, on average, $50,000 for each one of their citizens. No country has ever managed to spend its way to prosperity, and the massive amounts of borrowing by governments will reduce funds available to private industry and consequently limit growth. This means that the economies of most countries will struggle to realize their potential — dragged down by such large debt burdens.
What this all means is that in most of the world’s economies, the government will be the dominant source of growth — and jobs. And governments are not good at that. Recent policy actions don’t suggest otherwise. The Speaker of the House — the Honorable Nancy Pelosi — made the statement that the cap-and-trade bill could be described by four words: jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. If government programs were so good at creating jobs and managing growth, the Soviet Union would have been the biggest economy in the world. And considering the track record of the Speaker’s home state of California in that respect, it might help to know what exactly the lady bases her claims on.
Whatever your opinion on climate change, this bill is a bad idea and incredibly ill-timed. The bill imposes more tax burdens at a time of economic decline, while expecting growth in employment from development of green technologies that are in their infancy at best. Most are years away from reaching the point where they will go mainstream enough to generate sizable numbers of jobs. There just aren’t enough jobs that will be created in the next few years making windmills and solar panels to make a sizable dent in the unemployment picture. Add to that the possibility of healthcare reform with a potential tab of $1.6 trillion, and increases in minimum wage, and one has to wonder: What exactly are policy-makers thinking?
Where the Jobs Are
Since 2008 employers in America have eliminated thousands of recruiting jobs. A lot of these are not coming back anytime soon. Perhaps the President can find a way to save some, but assuming he may not find time in his agenda to do so, recruiters looking for work should consider working for the Federal Government and employers that provide services to the government. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is designed to fund the creation (or saving?) of 3.5 million jobs over the next two years. Funding for government projects that will create these jobs is now starting to flow. Federal agencies that will directly create new jobs list their positions here.
To get some leads on what projects are being funded, and therefore the providers that may need recruiters, look for RFPs put out by Federal Agencies. These are all published in the Federal Register and on the individual agency websites, along with details on those being awarded these contracts.
Looking wider, companies that deal with growing economies — specifically China, India, Australia, and Singapore — will also be hiring. The World Bank forecasts that the Chinese and Indian economies are expected to grow by about 7% this year. Certain Middle Eastern countries, particularly some in the Gulf States, like Qatar, will also see growth rates of 5%. The International Labor Organization projects employment growth will be positive in South Asia and parts of the Pacific. Businesses based in these regions and doing business here are hiring. Even in Western Europe, several countries — like Switzerland — are experiencing chronic shortages of talent.
Regionally, of 381 metropolitan areas in the U.S., the 15 that are still growing are mostly in oil and natural-resource-rich regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and the Dakotas. The energy industry, in these areas and elsewhere, is also seeing a resurgence — oil-rig operators are bringing more rigs on-stream, up 25% in the last month.
This Too Shall Pass
It ain’t over till the plus-sized woman sings, and by most accounts right now she’s not even on the stage. Recruiting as a profession has been around for over 2,000 and it will survive the current crisis. The road ahead is bumpy and uncertain. There’s little to be optimistic about. Welcome to an era of lowered expectations. But recruiting is still a business-critical function.